OSU football: A deep dive into where Oregon State and Oregon stand heading into rivalry showdown (2024)

The first two weeks of the season for Oregon State and Oregon have been wildly different.

For the Beavers, it’s been largely uneventful. After some back and forth early, they took control against Idaho State. They followed that up with a shutout victory over San Diego State.

For the ninth-ranked Ducks, it’s been chaotic. They hung on late against Idaho in the opener, followed by a dramatic victory over Boise State, winning on a last-second field goal.

But let’s look beyond what it says on the scoreboard. Let’s look at how these two teams have fared through two games and how these rivals are trending going into this important showdown.

To do this, we’ll look at basic stats, like yards per play and whatnot, but we’ll also look at more advanced stats to get a clearer picture of what’s happening.

Here are three stats we’ll be looking at, with basic explanations of what they mean:

With each of these stats, we can also see how well a defense does in preventing these types of plays.

One thing to note is that these stats don’t often take into account the skill level of the opponent, especially with the small sample size two weeks in.

With that said, let’s break it down, matchup by matchup.

Oregon State defense vs. Oregon offense

Coming into this season, this was a matchup that many would have thought would heavily favor the Ducks. Talent on the outside, in the running game and a Heisman candidate at quarterback with Dillon Gabriel. But it hasn’t always been easy.

Last week against Boise State, Oregon averaged 3.0 yards per rush. That level of play is reflected in Oregon’s EPA per rush, where the Ducks rank 72nd.

On the other side, the Oregon State rush defense has been a strength through two weeks. Against San Diego State, the Beavers allowed 2.9 yards per attempt. The advanced numbers look really good, as they rank seventh in defensive EPA per rush.

It’s the passing game where Oregon could gain some ground, not necessarily on efficiency, but on explosiveness. The Ducks are 25th in EPA per drop back, and their success rate in passing situations is actually lower than in rushing situations (44.1% vs. 41.7%), even though they both rank in the top 50 in the country.

But the Ducks love to air it out and let their receivers make plays. Gabriel averaged 11.6 yards per pass attempt against Boise.

Oregon State’s pass defense has been good, ranking 19th in opponent EPA per drop back. But with Idaho State’s rotating cast of QBs and San Diego State starting a true freshman, that is where the opponent strength, or lack thereof, comes into play.

Looking at the Eckel rate, it paints an interesting picture. Oregon’s offense is ranked 86th. Struggles against Idaho contribute to that. Oregon State’s defense is ranked fourth. Pitching a shutout helps with that.

What will also be key for Oregon is cashing in on early downs. When looking at the EPA specifically for first and second downs, Oregon State's defense ranks 91st. The defense's success rate on third and fourth downs? Thirty-seventh. If the Beavers are able to get the Ducks behind the chain, it could lead to success.

When looking at this matchup, it presents two questions: Does the Oregon offense have another gear that we haven’t seen yet? And is the Oregon State defense really that good, or does it have more to do with the quality of opponents?

Oregon State offense vs. Oregon defense

When looking at Oregon’s defense, specifically against the run, there’s one factor that could skew the numbers — Ashton Jeanty.

The Boise State running back is one of— if not the best— backs in the entire country and he proved why last week against the Ducks. Jeanty ran for 192 yards on 25 carries with three touchdowns as Oregon couldn’t do much to stop him. The advanced stats look a little better, but not by much, as Oregon is 79th in EPA per rush against.

The Beavers don’t have an Ashton Jeanty. But the two-headed tandem of Jam Griffin and Anthony Hankerson has been a formidable pairing through two weeks.

The monster opener against Idaho State paired with a strong effort in San Diego has the Beavers 29th in the country in EPA per rush.

The surprising thing might be that their passing EPA is even better, as Oregon State ranks 18th in EPA per drop back. But with the limited number of passes, the big plays combined with the lack of negatives and turnovers make it look really good even with the smaller sample size.

But Oregon’s secondary has been really strong, ranking 12th in EPA per drop back against. Maddux Madsen for Boise State completed just 17 of 40 pass attempts.

The Eckel rate is almost a wash between these two sides, but through the first two weeks it does favor the Beavers. The offense ranks 46th in Eckel rate, while the Oregon defense ranks 67th.

Another important aspect of this matchup is field position. Both sides here struggle with this, as OSU's offense ranks 89th in average starting field position, while Oregon's defense ranks 106th.

The key in this matchup will be can Oregon State succeed just with the ground game. Two years ago it worked as the Beavers almost exclusively stayed on the ground as they mounted their comeback.

But if quarterback Gevani McCoy is tasked with leading the way with his arm, can the Idaho transfer deliver?